Brier Score Calculator

Probability estimate: 50%

If the event happens (outcome = 1):

Brier score: 0.25

If the event doesn't happen (outcome = 0):

Brier score: 0.25

About Brier Scores

The Brier score is a measure of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. It's calculated as the mean squared error between the predicted probability and the actual outcome (0 or 1).

A lower Brier score indicates better calibration. The score ranges from 0 (perfect prediction) to 1 (worst possible prediction).

Formula: Brier Score = (probability - actual outcome)²